Election Prediction for Texas Updated:
My previous prediction for a Barack Obama 9 point victory in Texas was made when Barack was down by 15-20 points in the polls. He’s now evened up the polls (that are having a hard time with their own inaccuracies) and as I mentioned, if Hispanics started floating to him…we could expect a blowout. Well….expect a blowout, I’m sticking with 17 points and a 65-35 caucus split:
| White men | 11.0% | 5.0% |
| White women | 12.0% | 13.0% |
| Black men | 11.5% | 1.5% |
| Black women | 11.5% | 1.5% |
| Hispanic men | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| Hispanic women | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| 58.0% | 41.0% |
I think it will be safe to say Barack can take a nice vacation before heading up to Pennsylvania.
Update: It appears Hillary is doing a good job of scaring women with the “what about the kids?” ads. This has caused me to make a final update.
Hey Infogiant. It’s former one-time NBA All-Star Rony Seikaly here for another political fun fact.
Did you know Hillary Clinton is both older and shorter than Barack Obama?
Just a little knowledge to keep in your back pocket and drop on an unsuspecting victim at a party.
OK, gotta run. Sherman Douglas and Scotty Hastings want to play some Wii.
Rony
Keep the info coming Rony!! You’re a two-time all star in my eyes!
Do you have any predictions on Ohio? Majority of polls have Obama behind by several points. Only one poll by Decision Analyst puts him ahead of Clinton by 8 points. Do these polls include Republican and Independents or they simply focus on likely Democratic voters?
Take a look at one of my posts from a few days ago. I do think he will continue to make up ground and win in the end.
http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/24/ohio-voters-and-how-they-perfectly-represent-america/#comments
Furthermore, the polling that is done does not take into account those who use only cell phones as it is against the law to solicit information via cell. With the youth vote being so dominant for one candidate (and underrepresented in the polling due to so many young people only using a cell phone), this is one reason why most of the end results of each election are greater then the polls indicate. I’ll say Ohio by 4 for Obama.
I’ve seen so many campaigns fail because they relied on the youth vote. The youth doesn’t vote. It, along with other factors, doomed Kerry and Gore.
Do you really think they will turn out this time in both the primary and the general? And what is your basis for this belief given all the historical evidence to the contrary?
Steve,
I do think that things are changing with the youth vote. I think most of the change in the youth becoming more knowledgeable about the system and candidates directly correlate to the Internet, YouTube, and shows like the Daily Show and the Colbert Report having shown them that it is not only important to pay attention.
With so much negative news created by the Bush administration, the youth will lean very heavily to one side. The increase of knowledge, a candidate that represents their multicultural view of the world, an inspirational message, and the fact that their vote will not offset itself by voting for both sides, I do think it will have a significant impact.
In 2004, the youth vote was expected to spike, but so did all age ranges. In many of the early states , the youth vote has gone from 8-9% to 14-15%. That is a pretty significant shift considering both elections had a change feel to them.
I do think that if Hillary becomes the candidate, you’ll see both a drop in the turnout and a shift of some to McCain, which would reduce some of their impact.
Where’s my earlier exchange with you just a few minutes ago, challenging you to show me the difference between your views on the election and those of FOX News, the mainstream media you disparaged?
Has Infogiant actually REMOVED info?
I agree with you, Obama wins big in Texas, wins in Ohio by a few points, cleans up in Vermont. He may lose by a few points in Rhode Island, but he will get almost half the delegates. This is Clinton’s last stand.
It’s on the story about different polls, different results…the same place you originally posted the thought. If you’d like me to remove this comment…I’d fully understand. Let me know.
Interesting that at 3:00 AM when the red phone rings she has enough time to get all made up and put on her string of pearls before she answers the phone. Or perhaps she couldn’t sleep or yet still perhaps she was out partying. In any of those cases it doesn’t make me feel warm and comfy that she is answering the phone.
So what’s the truth here Hillary??