Hillary is…

do I really have to say it again?! She’s officially become the biggest whiner of all time. Please just read this article about her wanting to challenge Texas and the way they count their votes (you know, now that she’s lagging in the polls) and then refer to my blog entries listed below.

one would think Hillary would be tired of being such a whiner about the Xerox and Saturday Night Live. Not to mention the Caucuses aren’t fair or I always have to answer first. Hillary, if you’re staying up late to come up with this crap…then get some sleep.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/23/texas-primary-caucus-an-explanation-for-the-curious/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/win-at-all-costs-why-hillary-is-bad-for-america-and-definitely-more-of-the-same/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/25/would-the-real-hillary-please-stand-up/

John, Keep Up.

Yesterday McCain tried to explain to Barack that there is Al Qaida in Iraq. Thanks to he, Bush, and Cheney there sure is. While that was a preview of a campaign to come, I’m thinking that there will be more McCain getting confused than anything else.

I really liked this article that recounts a kid’s question to McCain about his saying that we could stay in Iraq for 100 years. A young man pointed out an analogy to John today that we’re crashing on someone’s couch after our house burned down, and that we might want to set a date so that they know we won’t be freeloading forever (I won’t even get into the fact that they’re leaving out the fact that we weren’t invited in crash there…and lied about why we decided to start freeloading; “free” just a figure of speech, mind you).

So, John’s explanation is that we also have a right to protect our house from burning down. WHAT IN THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT JOHN?!! In your analogy you’re talking about the Bush administration ignoring everyone’s evidence that Al Quaida was about to strike and that we should have protected the twin towers.

What John fails to realize is that we’re asleep on the couch while everyone in this neighborhood (Middle East) is pissed off and thinking about going to our hometown (the rest of the world) to burn our families’ houses down too. Unfortunately, we’re too busy paying $12 billion in monthly rent to the homeowner to spend any money on a neighborhood watch (border, homeland security, Afghanistan)….let alone spend money on schools or road repair (uh…schools and road repair probably weren’t metaphors). Not to mention, we’re going month to month, but aren’t looking for a new home, although America with a summer home in Afghanistan seems logical.

For someone who acts like he’s so keen on foreign issues, John McCain is actually very detached from reality. He thinks that since we have a base in Okinawa or Germany, that it will be the same in Iraq…just fine. Yes John, I’m sure all of the Middle East will be happy that we’re putting up a base right in the middle of their Holy Land. It’s not like they were upset when we did the same in Saudi Arabia. Oh wait, that is why they blew up a Navy ship, a military building, and both World Trade centers. Never mind.

Time to start working on understanding the world instead of explaining it, John.

Just as Hillary’s Hypocrisy Dies Down, McCain and GOP Happy to Step In.

Hillary Clinton has tried for one year to slow down the Barack Obama movement. Early in the Campaign she went with the aura of inevitability. As the campaign went on, she made the decision to go with the ace in the hole she’s been planning on using since she ran for the senate: I’ve got the experience. Since Hillary has been in the Senate, she’d been padding her resume with foreign relation committees to fight off all the argument she knew/thought she’d have to face as a woman and a democrat. When a vote came up to give G.W. Bush the authority to go to war with a country to take Iraq’s oil contracts away from Russia and China and hand them to Exxon and Haliburton, Hillary had no choice…she had to say yes or she couldn’t be President because she thought everyone would see her as weak.  In actuality, they just see her as part of the problem. 

As time went on and the U.S. military was unable to solve 1,000 year old disputes between different Islamic religious sects, it became apparent that the new politician Barack Obama started to get the upper hand due to his grasp of the issues, message of hope, and most importantly…foresight to point out what so many other non-politicians could see was obvious: invading a Islamic country that DIDN’T have terrorists probably wasn’t the best idea in a war against terrorism.

As Barack started to get the upper hand, the hypocrisy began; whether it was the tough Hillary shedding tears in New Hampshire, or Bill Clinton (the country’s “first black president”) inferring that Barack just won South Carolina because he was black.  The hypocrisy continued into Hillary trying to hit Obama for not being prepared for the big decisions that lie ahead when she was obviously making decisions to go to war for personal gain. She has claimed to be against the special interests and corporations despite taking more money from lobbyists than any other candidate while Barack hasn’t taken a dime from Lobbyists or political action committees.

Result: Loss after loss.

Insert John McCain. What can they do to attack this new style politician who has few weaknesses? Well, the first thing you have to do is poll your republican base to determine how racist you can be without them jumping ship. Done.

Second, do what Hillary did in sending something to try and scare the electorate into thinking that Barack is Muslim. That’s exactly what McCain’s campaign did in sending out a crazy Rush Limbaugh style talk show host to rile up the crowd and try to scare them because his middle name sounds like the bad guy in Iraq. Then act like you didn’t know anything about it and apologize. Seems like a perfect recipe to scare off any Independent votes John is hoping to get.

In the meantime, let the fear mongering begin.

Ohio Debate

A few days ago, Hillary challenged Barack to “Meet me in Ohio to debate the issues.”  He ran circles around her and she tried for more humor based on an old TV show Saturday Night Live (that hasn’t been relevant in 10 years) one liner in attempt to point out why the media doesn’t treat her fairly.  “Why do I always get the first question?”…she asked the moderator.  Uh, as President, who are you going to defer to?  Shouldn’t you relish the opportunity to set the tone of the conversation?  It’s not like you won’t get a chance to refute anything the other person says.  It was just a very weak argument.

This comes a week after she challenged Barack to, yes, “Meet me in Texas, so we can debate the issues.”  She proceeded to want to debate about Barack using a line of a friend in one of his speeches.  How did she try to hit him on this, by using another irrelevant comparison to Barack’s message being change you can “Xerox.”  Xerox?  Really?  Hillary, you really need to catch up with the rest of us.  Next thing you know, she’s going to say that he’s too slow to be President, slow like a “rotary phone.”  Zinger!! 

Nothing new from Hillary, she’s been trotting out the “ready from day one” for so many months without it working; it’s not a surprise she’s got her tactics set on a loop. 

Many pundits thought she was at her worst on the Iraq issue or the Xerox line.  However, I think the reason people don’t like Hillary, is because they just don’t believe her.  When asked if she would release her tax returns, she said what she’s said many times before.  “I’ll release them when I become the nominee,” and when she realized that wasn’t going to fly, she says, “Or earlier.”  Well, that’s convenient for you.  You’ll give the voters information about how you’re bankrolling your campaign after you’ve already locked them into a potentially corrupt candidate. 

Sorry Hillary, nobody’s buying it this time and you have no one to blame but yourself.

Different Polls, Different Answers: The Elevator Theory.

Take a look at one poll and you see Hillary leading Barack by 10 in Texas. Another has her up by 4, another has him up by 4. The pollsters are stumped and embarrassed, specifically one Gallup poll being so different from another Gallup poll in the same time frame, in fact, 9 points different. How could the same company take two different polls in the same time period, and get two different results. The answer, other than slight variances for the way the question is answered, is what I’m calling the Elevator Theory.

When 99% of most polling takes place, people have already made up their minds about the polling questions and it is easy to measure. It’s like measuring what floor an elevator is on. Ask enough people, and you get the average answer that is usually somewhat accurate.

However, in the race between Hillary and Barack, we have two moving elevators (one is rocketing up rapidly and the other falling at a somewhat slower but increasing speed), which makes it difficult to get anyone who feels the same way about where the elevators are at that moment.

When you have one candidate that was previously a relative unknown that is inspiring the country, and the most (or second most) famous woman in the country losing credibility, likability, and electability, with every flap of the jaw…you may just have something that is not measurable until election night. Maybe that’s why they set an election date to vote (twice in Texas).

Of course, neither of these theories take into account my previous mention that sometimes the electorate is void of the information needed to make the “right” decision, but will eventually come around with time. Not to mention, the fact that the youth vote is underrepresented by 5-10 points in presidential election polls this year due to the inability to call people who only use cell phones. The only poll I’ve seen that has taken this into account was the public policy polling that predicted an Obama win in Wisconsin by 13%, when their polling only had him up 3%. This is increasingly important when the age group that should usually be underrepresented due to their lack of a presence at the polls, is showing up in force…including 1,000 students marching seven miles to the nearest polling location.

 Next stop for Obama?  Penthouse Suite please.

Would the Real Hillary Please Stand Up?

Hillary’s debate performance in Austin, TX last week was a perfect synopsis of her campaign. She was one minute trying to show the men in the audience she was tough by attempting to bash Barack Obama for using his campaign co-chair’s line from a previous speech, and the next minute trying to pander to the women vote by showing her compassionate side in saying that she hoped the American people would be okay. (never mind the fact that she hypocritically lifted this part directly from John Edwards).

Hillary can’t decide if she’s for change or experience. She can’t decide if she needs to cry or not. She can’t decide whether her 35 years of experience includes the part where her husband signed NAFTA into law or if it was just parts that might get her some votes.

What she has decided on is to continue her hypocrisy. She may say on camera like she did at the debate that she is honored to be in the race with Barack, but what her campaign does is send out a picture to the press trying to stir up anti-Muslim sentiment, not to mention ruin her opponent. Unfortunately for her, being so cold hearted and a fear monger is why her negatives are so high in the first place.

Expect serious backlash from the Democratic party on this one (including Superdelegate scrambling for the Obama bandwagon). Considering the new polls in Texas dictate that she’s officially lost any chance at the nomination, the only logical conclusion could be that she’s trying to sabotage any shot for a democrat to win 2008 so she’ll get another shot in 2012, which means it’s time for Hillary to get lost. I’m quite happy that the Great State of Texas will get to do that to her with a resounding thud…the only question is, will it be worse than Wisconsin’s 17 point victory. I’m going with 17 on the nose with 65-35 split in the caucus. As Drudge showed earlier, there were a few other photos from leaders who wear local garb on trips to foreign places…enjoy the irony/hypocrisy:

Ohio Voters and How They Perfectly Represent America

One of the problems with political pundits you see all over the airwaves is that they are unable to have two divergent thoughts at the same time. Yes, Hillary lost within the voter group of white people earning less than $50,000/year in Maryland, but she’d won them overwhelmingly up to that point. In Wisconsin, she won that group by three points, so she must be getting them back.

The truth of the matter is, this is not her base of voters. People do not see someone whose husband started NAFTA as the savior of their jobs. The simple fact is, people who earn less money, earn less money usually because they, as a product of their surroundings, aren’t able to tie many different news stories together, or don’t hang out in the type of crowd that would discuss politics on a regular basis, or don’t have an office job that allows them to check the news now and again, or flatly, they just don’t have time due to raising their family or working two jobs to concern themselves with politics on a regular basis to know what the candidates stand for and how that will affect them.

There is a reason it took a Hurricane destroying a city for the masses in America to realize the Bush administration was incompetent. There is a reason it took Americans years of corruption in Iraq to realize it was more of a money grab than trying to save us from terrorists that weren’t there until we got there. There is a reason the masses never understood why it was bad when the administration was lying about evidence we had to go into Iraq and committing treason exposing CIA agents who had family members who point out these lies. The masses are never able to grasp these concepts in real time is because factory workers, farm workers, and other lower wage earners do not live in a real time world. However, eventually, the world catches up to them and they eventually see things as the rest of the world does, which seems to be a good thing.

Barack Obama’s message is catching up with the masses in Ohio. High numbers of blue collar workers do not favor Hillary because that is her base, it favors Hillary because it takes time for an alternate and new message to penetrate this group. Hillary’s “base” has been voting for her because she is the only name they’ve recognized due to her husband’s success and downfall in the 90’s. However, Hillary’s positives at this point have been reduced to white older women (and even that is being cut into) and an unknown quantity known as the quick passage of time before the next state election. The longer it takes for time to pass, the longer the person with the better message has to get their word out. Barack and a little time will likely do for Ohio and its workers what time has done for America…catch it up with reality.

With 10 days to campaign before the vote on March 4, I suspect reality wins big.

The Oompa Loompas can sing and make a mad Everlasting Gobstopper, but that leaves little time for reading about Richard Clarke (Terrorism Czar) warning Condoleeza Rice about Al Qaida’s immenent attack on the US and her not taking that to the President or Bush’s instruction for Clarke to find a link between 9/11 and Iraq.

Texas Primary and Caucus: An Explanation for the Curious

One item I’ve been asked to explain is the Texas Primary and Caucus system. I will take on this challenge, although I don’t think it is as confusing as it sounds.

In Texas, 126 of the delegates (roughly 2/3) are apportioned to the candidates by a primary which allows early voting at any voting location in your county ending on February 29. Regular voting is on March 4. The other third of the elected delegates (67) are apportioned based on a precinct convention (or Caucus) that takes place on March 4 at 7:15 or after the last voter has voted, whichever comes later (the polls close at 7:00, but this rule allows those who get there by 7:00 the right to get their vote in). Additionally, like other states, there are 35 superdelegates who are: all members of the United State House from Texas, members of the Democratic National Committee from Texas, the Former U.S. Speaker of the House, and the Former Chair of the Democratic National Committee.

There is a 3 level convention system, but the only thing that really matters to voters are the precinct conventions. There is a precinct chair who calls to order the convention at 7:15. If the chair is not there at 7:15, anyone who is participating (which means you also voted that day), can start the meeting. This is relevant as the person running this convention might use their own influence to push voters in one direction and could very well happen in more rural (and likely unorganized border communities) spots.

When you arrive (and it is recommended that you arrive by 7:00, but definitely before 7:15), you sign in and indicate who you support. If there were more than two candidates, it would be a lot more complicated. Since there are only two, there won’t be any, or much, switching votes due to yours or any other candidates not having enough votes to count in the Caucus. In other words, the process shouldn’t take too long.

Now I could go into more details on the process, but I’m going to comment on another subtle quirk in the apportionment of delegates. Texas splits up delegates in each district based on how well voters turned out in the previous election. Hillary mentioned as recently as February 18th when speaking about the Texas delegate system, “I’ve got people trying to understand it as we speak. Grown men are crying as we speak. I had no idea it was so bizarre.” This sounds like her whining about the Caucus format and how they hurt working people. Question: does whining about the format of the elections and getting people to figure it out two weeks before it takes place really sound like she’s “ready to lead on day one”? I submit that she should have been focusing a little more attention on the elections, but spent too much time thinking about the inauguration. I’ve been telling people for months that it was all going to come down to Texas and Ohio, does Hillary live in the same bubble that George W. does…void of anyone who can tell her the truth or at the very least, know how to operate an Excel spreadsheet to calculate delegate projections?

Do we want another whiner in the White House? “It’s hard work!”

Furthermore, the delegate apportionment makes perfect sense to me. If a district votes heavily Democrat in one election, then it’s likely they will in the subsequent election, and should be the district who is deciding who should be the candidate for the national election. Otherwise, Huckabee supporters come out to vote for the candidate that will be easier to beat in November. This assumes of course that homeschooling their child doesn’t get in the way of voting.

Huckabee convinces kids he’s cool, after convincing them that dinosaurs obviously didn’t exist since the earth is only 30,000 years old. Look it up in the Book put together by “scientists” in the Middle East and Italy, oh , around 1700 years ago.

One final note about delegate apportionment for my loyal Austin readership. The average district in Texas is worth 4 delegates (15 of the 31 districts). Nine are worth 3, one is worth 2 delegates. Due to heavy turnout in other areas, 2 districts are worth 5 delegates, a few are worth 6, and one is worth 7. District 14, which is most of Travis County (Austin), is the only district worth 8 delegates due to it being the only blue county in the state other than some less populated border counties.

Texas Politics - Rumor Mill

Reunion Arena’s day of giving a good concert for INXS or Pink Floyd are not over. A second hand story informs me that there were 20,000 strong in Dallas to hear the Barack rock concert yesterday. What is the rumor I’m reporting? Tickets were being scalped outside for $200+.

Oh, and I’ve also heard Chelsea was in Dallas and did a nice job answering questions for students at UT Dallas (well, nice but boring according to a professor at the school). Timing is everything, and the Clinton campaign hasn’t made many right decisions yet. Maybe Mark Penn getting Bill elected for his second term wasn’t really a hireable offense.

The Lobbyist Story Won’t Die for McCain

It’s hard to kill a story when you lie in your denial of the story.  Apparently John did talk to the clients of his lobbyist (that he may or may not have been sleeping with) in an attempt to push through a decision that would help that client…despite him saying that he never talked to them.

What’s worse for him is a story that details that most of John’s advisors are lobbyists. I thought Hillary was having a bad month…ouch.

McCain Gambling with Taxpayer Money

John McCain being entrenched with lobbyists aren’t the only hits he’s taken this week. His latest troubles are not only real time, but much more of a direct poke in the eye to the American taxpayer.

A quick summary of the linked article above is that John needed a healthy chunk of money to get his campaign back afloat and like Hillary Clinton, took out a loan to get it going again. Neither candidate is doing anything terribly shady by doing that (although Hillary’s loan coinciding with a $100 million donation made to her husband raised serious questions about the old school Clinton tactics to make a buck…made shadier by her refusal to release her tax returns after loaning herself money for her campaign).

McCain’s problem, is that after his campaign picked up a little steam, he needed a second loan. He did what most people would do, in December he refinanced his loan. However, lacking collateral to pay the loan back with if he tanked, the new wording of the loan required that McCain would be FORCED (by the language of the loan) to unnecessarily stay in the race and apply for federal campaign money so that taxpayers would be forced to pay back his loan, even though he and the bank would know he was done…or as the article states, “stay in even if he didn’t want to.”

Just to be clear, a potential President of the United States and CURRENT senator would be forced to take money from the U.S. Government at taxpayer expense even if he already had decided that he was ready to drop out. If that’s not selling your soul to the devil, I don’t know what is. I won’t even get into the irony of John not understanding why the economy is in the tank due to predatory lending practices, but let’s just say Fat Albert has nothing on the thickness of it.

Fat Albert supports Barack and preventative health care

As terrible as this sounds, it is made worse by the fact that in recent days McCain has been trying to slam Obama for not accepting the public financing that McCain was using to rig the system.

With every scandal, John McCain is losing the one or two arguments he may have been able to use against Barack in the fall. I expect tomorrow we’ll find out John was withholding armor for the troops.

Fairly Even Debate

Barack proved that he has become a great debater and can rattle off stats, turn a question aimed at him to his opponent, and take on two opponents at once (by hitting McCain hard on not understanding the economy and proving it by embracing Bush’s economic policies).

Hillary showed why she has always been great at debates and would likely be a hell of an intelligent president. Her attacks ran hollow (and she was even booed for one lame remark about him taking a line from his friend), but her sensitive side may slow down the incredible momentum Obama has had. In the end, she needs more than a tie, she needs a blowout.

An even debate favors the person with the lead, and Barack’s lead has grown to be almost insurmountable, especially after his 11th primary or caucus win in a row after winning the primary for Americans living abroad.

McCain’s Big Problem

When Bill Clinton had his tussle with the GOP in 1998, so much was made of a guy cheating on his wife that he became only the second president to be impeached. Now, it was mainly over the phrasing of a question and how he answered it, but it really came down to the Republicans knowing that the economy was going too good and they had to have a super scandal or Al Gore would be President. Therefore, the country was so angered about a sex scandal that they scorned a President.

John McCain’s problem is that his party has so focused on sex scandals being worse than the Holocaust that anything resembling the same type of scandal and you get hit in the head with that same boomerang you slang years before. The page scandal and gay republicans in 2006 (and beyond) proved just that.

However, the bigger problem for John is that he has spent 16 years restoring his credibility with the nation and upsetting his Republican partners after being caught up in the Keating 5 savings and loan scandal from the 80’s and early 90’s. McCain had to move to center and sign on to campaign finance reform for anyone to trust him again. However, Republicans hate this bill as it cuts off their corporate funding. Barack Obama (and Hillary may be too, she may even show her tax return after the democratic convention) is pulling all of his money in from individual donors…republican would like to offset that with Exxon and AT&T money. Unfortunately for the GOP, in his attempt to absolve himself from his sins, signed away many of those rights (of course, they can still give millions to Swift Boat someone in a 527 ad…but that’s for another time).

The story will likely be turned into a story about why did the NY Times report this information, not what they reported. In Washington terms, it’s probably somewhat minor. However, for someone who wanted to act like he was above the Washington Lobbyist’s and against earmarks, he just lost his ability to appear above reproach…and may have lost a chance at the White House.

Delegate math:

I thought you’d like to see Chuck Todd’s delegate math after last night.  Of course, you could have had it before the debate by reading the I.G. 

*** The Delegate math: After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276. Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won’t be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%. On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% — SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK…

Is Hillary Getting a Free Pass?

Hillary’s campaign has implied to reporters over the past several months that Barack Obama is getting a free pass and isn’t being hit hard enough with real questions.  The problem is, when you don’t have a history of taking money from lobbyists, then there’s not a whole lot of hard hitting questions to worry about.  Yes, Obama may not have a resume of accomplishments in the Senate, but the Senate doesn’t have many accomplishments as a whole in the past, I don’t know, 40 years.

So, the question is, who is really getting the free pass?  As I mentioned to one of my loyal readers yesterday when they asked if Hillary could still win, “Remember that time when Hillary won a state?  That was neat.”  Point being, if anyone other than Hillary had lost 10 straight contests, and NONE by a margin of less than 17 points, don’t you think they would have already said, “you’re done”…?

 The only states Hillary can really boast about at this point are Massachusetts, California, New York, and New Jersey.  ZERO of these states did she win by a margin of more than 17 points.  That’s correct, even in her home state she won by only 17 points…and even that margin is in question due to Barack getting NO VOTES in 80 election districts on election night, including the cotton white neighborhoods of Harlem and Brooklyn.

In fact, the only state of significance Hillary has won other than her home state and states that had a 30 point lead and absentee voting up to a month before the candidates started campaigning there (CA and Mass), was New Jersey. Obama netted more delegates out of Idaho - 12, Kansas - 14, and Minnessota - 24, than Hillary did from Jersey - 10.

Hillary and her campaign may want to blame the media or Bill, but the truth is, the problem is the message and the messenger. Without the name, she’d have been done after Iowa.